Worldsteel Sees Modest Recovery in 2026, Stronger Steel Demand Growth in 2027

The World Steel Association forecasts a gradual recovery in global steel demand, with growth of 0.3% in 2026 followed by a stronger 2.2% increase in 2027, according to its latest Short Range Outlook.

The Brussels-based organization estimates global demand will reach 1.724 billion metric tons in 2026, rising to 1.762 billion metric tons in 2027. The outlook suggests the market is stabilizing after several years of weak consumption linked to structural adjustments across major economies.

Worldsteel compiles data from nearly 70 countries and provides one of the most widely followed benchmarks for steel demand trends. Its latest projections indicate that demand is nearing a bottom after declining or stagnating since 2022.

The expected rebound is tied to diverging regional dynamics. Demand contraction in China is easing, while emerging markets, particularly India, continue to expand at a faster pace. At the same time, developed economies are showing early signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn, the association notes.

“Our latest forecasts validate the trajectory established in our October 2025 SRO, confirming that global steel demand is bottoming out over the 2025-2026 period,” said Alfonso Hidalgo Calcerrada, who also serves as chief economist of the Madrid-based Unión de Empresas Siderúrgicas (UNESID). He added that growth is expected to remain modest in 2026 before accelerating in 2027.

The shift is expected to benefit steel producers as well as recyclers and scrap processors, as firmer demand could support more stable pricing conditions across the supply chain.

Regional trends remain uneven. In China, which accounts for more than half of global steel production, demand is projected to decline by 1.5% in 2026 as the property sector downturn continues, before stabilizing in 2027. Outside China, global demand is forecast to grow by 4% in 2027, a pace Worldsteel describes as unusually strong in recent years.

India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major market, with demand increasing by 7.4% in 2026 and 9.2% in 2027. Developed economies, including the United States, the European Union, Japan, Canada and South Korea, are all projected to return to growth in 2027.

In the United States, demand is forecast to rise by 1.7% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, supported by infrastructure spending and private investment, particularly in technology-driven sectors. A gradual recovery in residential construction is also expected, although high borrowing costs and labor shortages may limit the pace.

Worldsteel noted that geopolitical risks remain a key uncertainty. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East could weigh on regional demand in 2026 and potentially lead to downward revisions if disruptions persist.

Source: The World Steel Association

SUNSHINE Spotlight: Global steel demand appears to be stabilizing, with growth increasingly driven by emerging markets and a delayed recovery in developed economies.