Goldman Projects Copper to Ease in 2026 After Record Rally

Copper prices are expected to retreat modestly in 2026 from recent record highs, as ample global supply caps gains despite sustained demand from power grids and energy infrastructure, Goldman Sachs Research said in recent commodities outlook reporting.

Copper has rallied sharply over the past year, reflecting investor concern about supply availability outside the United States and rising demand from electrification. Data from the London Metal Exchange show the benchmark copper contract reached an all-time high of $11,771 per metric ton on Dec. 8. Goldman analysts say that spike has outpaced near-term market balances, setting the stage for a modest pullback.

The bank forecasts the LME copper price will largely trade between $10,000 and $11,000 in 2026 and average about $10,710 per metric ton in the first half of the year. Analysts cite weakening Chinese demand as a key factor, with refined copper consumption in China estimated to have fallen about 8 percent year on year in the fourth quarter of 2025 after earlier stimulus effects and tariff-related buying faded.

Goldman estimates the global copper market will finish 2025 with a surplus of roughly 500,000 metric tons, more than double its previous estimate. Observers note that slower manufacturing growth in parts of Asia and Europe has softened near-term consumption, partially offsetting demand from renewable energy projects, data centers and transmission upgrades.

U.S. trade policy could reshape flows next year. Goldman’s base-case scenario assumes Washington will introduce a tariff of at least 25 percent on refined copper imports, following a recommendation expected from the U.S. Commerce Secretary by June 2026. Industry data show that shipments of copper cathode into the United States accelerated earlier this year as buyers moved ahead of policy decisions, a pattern analysts say could repeat if new duties appear likely.

Market participants expect any cathode tariff to cause a short-lived price dip as inventories are reshuffled, before prices resume their upward trend. Industry groups argue that tariffs could tighten availability outside the U.S. while raising costs for domestic fabricators in the short term.

Heading toward the end of the decade, Goldman sees the balance shifting. Limited growth in mine supply, longer permitting timelines and declining ore grades are expected to constrain output, while structural demand from power infrastructure, electric vehicles and grid expansion continues to build. The bank projects copper demand will begin to exceed supply from 2029, pushing prices higher and encouraging investment in new sources of material.

Most of that additional supply is expected to come from extending the life of existing mines and increasing the use of recycled copper, rather than from large greenfield projects. Analysts say scrap availability will become increasingly important as primary supply struggles to keep pace.

Looking further ahead, Goldman forecasts LME copper prices could reach $15,000 per metric ton by 2035, a level above current industry consensus and one that underscores the metal’s strategic role in the global energy transition.

Source: Goldman Sachs

SUNSHINE Spotlight: Copper may cool from record levels in 2026, but structural demand from power and grid investment keeps the long-term price trajectory tilted higher.