AISI: U.S. Steel Import Permits Dip in October, Finished Share Near 15%

U.S. steel import permits edged lower in October, signaling a softer flow of incoming material even as finished products gained ground, data compiled by the American Iron and Steel Institute from the Commerce Department’s Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis system show. 

Permit applications totaled about 1.59 million net tons in October, down from September’s level, while permits for finished steel rose to roughly 1.24 million tons. AISI estimated finished imports captured about 15% of the U.S. market for the month, compared with a year-to-date share near 19%, reflecting a gradual pullback from last year’s elevated import volumes.

The October snapshot extends a broader trend seen through most of 2025. Cumulative data for the first ten months indicate total steel imports of roughly 21.9 million tons and finished steel imports of about 16.3 million tons, both well below the same period in 2024. Analysts say the decline mirrors weaker global steel demand, slower construction activity in key markets, and lingering effects of U.S. trade measures that have reshaped sourcing patterns since the Section 232 tariffs were introduced in 2018.

Within the monthly totals, several product categories posted sharp sequential gains. Permits for reinforcing bar and wire rod surged from September levels, while coated sheet, hot-rolled sheet, and oil country tubular goods also advanced. 

On a year-to-date basis, stainless pipe and tube and tin plate stood out for double-digit growth compared with last year, suggesting pockets of resilience tied to energy projects, packaging demand, and specialized manufacturing.

Supplier dynamics shifted as well. Canada remained the largest source of steel entering the U.S. market in October, followed by Brazil and Mexico, while shipments from South Korea fell markedly from the prior month. For the year to date, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico still lead overall supply, though volumes from all three are running lower than a year earlier. Observers note that currency movements and freight costs have played a growing role in determining which origins remain competitive.

Industry groups argue that the moderation in imports offers some relief to U.S. mills facing margin pressure, but they caution that volatility remains high. Service centers, meanwhile, are watching closely for signs that rising finished imports could weigh on spot prices early next year.

Market participants expect import levels to remain sensitive to infrastructure spending timelines, energy-sector investment, and any shifts in trade policy during the first quarter of 2026. Analysts say a sustained rebound is unlikely without clearer signals of global demand recovery.

Source: American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI)

SUNSHINE Spotlight: October data show U.S. steel imports continuing to cool overall, even as finished products maintain a meaningful share of the domestic market.